Global oil inventories have surged by approximately 235 million barrels over the past five months, primarily driven by increases in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite this significant rise, only 10% of the inventory build has occurred in the OECD, which is crucial for price formation. This uneven distribution has allowed oil prices, particularly Brent, to remain stable, with current prices reflecting a market that appears tight despite expectations of a future surplus. Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the current market dynamics are influenced by regional stockpile variations, with Brent prices being less affected by builds in the Pacific.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that once the peak summer demand season concludes, a substantial surplus may emerge, although they anticipate only a modest increase in OECD stockpiles, projected to rise by no more than 165 million barrels over the next year. This would return inventory levels to 2017 standards, when Brent prices hovered around $65 per barrel. The bank maintains its Brent price forecasts at $65 for Q4 2025 and $60 for each quarter in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on future price movements amid fluctuating global demand and supply dynamics.